Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3E 0x3e16…5026 other 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,028 (+8%) realized +$3,756 · open +$272
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate70%99W / 43L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$7,868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$112
14 days+$302
30 days+$889
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$3,127
tech 18% −$75
crypto 2% −$55
finance 1% −$13
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +3.9% -6.0% 71% 19% -8.7%
≤30d 90 +11.8% +1.1% 78% 27% -4.9%
≤90d 142 +12.8% +2.0% 70% 30% -1.9%
all 142 +12.8% +2.0% 70% 30% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 30% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 20% -11.3%
15% -16.7% 18% -19.9%
20% -24.8% 11% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$46 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$7,868
Realized+$3,756
Unrealized+$272
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses99 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions80
Markets (closed)142 / 222
History coverage66d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 52¢ 58¢ $723 $804 +$81 (+11%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 57¢ 58¢ $466 $474 +$8 (+2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $347 $348 +$1 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 37¢ 36¢ $365 $348 −$17 (-5%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $336 $348 +$12 (+4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 74¢ 78¢ $296 $311 +$15 (+5%)
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 53¢ 78¢ $191 $278 +$87 (+45%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 80¢ 81¢ $271 $275 +$4 (+2%)
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $250 $274 +$24 (+9%)
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $260 $262 +$2 (+1%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $253 $259 +$5 (+2%)
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 84¢ 85¢ $247 $251 +$4 (+1%)
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $202 $232 +$31 (+15%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 70¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 43¢ 38¢ $205 $180 −$25 (-12%)
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $168 $171 +$3 (+2%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $160 $164 +$4 (+3%)
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 94¢ 86¢ $164 $150 −$14 (-8%)
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 42¢ 56¢ $104 $138 +$35 (+34%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 46¢ 46¢ $138 $136 −$1 (-1%)
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $125 $129 +$4 (+3%)
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 61¢ 70¢ $107 $123 +$16 (+15%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? No 41¢ 46¢ $106 $116 +$10 (+10%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $94 $100 +$7 (+7%)
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $97 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $74 +$19 +26%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $85 −$10 -12%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $30 +$27 +90%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 16 $222 −$8 -4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $320 +$20 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $656 −$118 -18%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 16 $26 +$12 +46%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $89 +$5 +5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $278 +$28 +10%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $942 +$37 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra Jun 16 $76 +$12 +16%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $167 +$3 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $322 +$6 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 16 $89 $0 +0%
Ethereal FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 15 $19 +$4 +21%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $97 −$13 -13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 15 $33 +$12 +36%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $275 +$60 +22%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $48 +$3 +7%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $75 +$4 +6%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $132 +$15 +11%
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $22 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,205 −$3 -0%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $154 −$2 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $888 −$352 -40%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3,855 +$312 +8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 12 $275 −$3 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $158 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $348 +$26 +8%
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $280 +$2 +1%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $163 −$7 -4%
Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $116 +$6 +5%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $136 +$2 +2%
Reppo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 12 $76 +$2 +3%
3Jane FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 11 $87 +$1 +1%
3Jane FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 11 $23 +$2 +7%
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
3Jane FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Jun 11 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 +1%
3Jane FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 10 $51 +$1 +1%
3Jane FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 10 $31 +$13 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 30m
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 41m
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $85 45m
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $125 50m
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 61¢ $29 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $37 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 54¢ $84 1h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 80¢ $21 2h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 7¢ $7 2h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 9¢ $9 3h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 80¢ $40 3h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 3h
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 60¢ $84 3h
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 60¢ $3 3h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 3h
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? BUY No 17¢ $2 4h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 4h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 4h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 5h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 5h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 80¢ $19 5h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 5h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 5h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 5h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 83¢ $5 5h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 83¢ $95 5h
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $38 6h
Tuyo FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $13 7h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 79¢ $19 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,868.13 · official $7,872.72 (match) · 2624 history records