Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e15…8d26 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2
other 27% −$1
finance 7% $0
weather 3% $0
sports 2% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -10.1%
all 26 -0.1% -9.7% 50% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -10.2%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage465d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $2 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $29 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $31 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $37 −$2 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $33 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $3 $0 +14%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $14 −$2 -16%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $1 $0 -9%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $34 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $34 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $2 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $9 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $13 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $29 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $29 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $2 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $31 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $31 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $31 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $22 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $13 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 74¢ $37 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $33 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $7 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $26 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $33 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $30 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records