trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 27% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 27% | 0% | -10.1% |
| all | 26 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 50% | 4% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.7% | 4% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -18.3% | 0% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -26.2% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -33.4% | 0% | -33.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 42¢ | 44¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 27 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 26 | $29 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $31 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 23 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 21 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 20 | $37 | −$2 | -7% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 20 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | May 20 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 19 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 25 | $6 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 21 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? | Mar 20 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 19 | $3 | $0 | +14% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Mar 17 | $14 | −$2 | -16% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? | Mar 12 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 11 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 10 | $15 | $0 | -0% |