Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:13:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e15…7e90 crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$478 (-14%) realized −$329 · open −$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 20 -29.9% -36.6% 45% 40% -43.5%
all 43 -0.7% -10.2% 37% 33% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 33% -24.9%
10% -18.8% 23% -32.1%
15% -26.6% 16% -38.6%
20% -33.8% 12% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$79 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$329
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage150d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 49¢ 20¢ $257 $107 −$149 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 1? May 01 $22 −$19 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $129 −$125 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $17 +$15 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16? Apr 16 $14 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 14 $89 −$87 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 14 $15 +$4 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 14 $69 +$18 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 14 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 13 $57 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 13 $40 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 13 $29 +$11 +38%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13? Apr 13 $102 −$71 -70%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 8? Apr 08 $42 −$21 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $47 −$23 -49%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 8? Apr 07 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $19 −$16 -84%
Solana Up or Down on April 4? Apr 04 $11 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 19 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 19? Mar 19 $55 −$31 -56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 18? Mar 18 $10 +$100 +1042%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 18? Mar 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 10? Mar 09 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $42 +$8 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $39 +$3 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $31 +$8 +25%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 16? Feb 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 14 $18 −$16 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 11 $34 −$33 -99%
Will Solana dip to $90 in February? Feb 01 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Solana dip to $90 in January? Jan 31 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 30? Jan 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 22? Jan 21 $1,497 −$1,497 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $194 +$1,303 +673%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $88 +$106 +120%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18? Jan 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18? Jan 18 $14 −$11 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 49¢ $266 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 47d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 1? SELL No 11¢ $3 47d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 1? BUY No 77¢ $22 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23? BUY No 62¢ $62 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23? BUY No 56¢ $67 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 22? SELL Yes 88¢ $32 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 44¢ $17 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $89 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $19 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $15 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $87 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $69 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $69 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $66 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $67 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $57 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $57 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $40 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $40 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $29 65d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13? SELL No 17¢ $31 65d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13? BUY No 54¢ $102 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 8? BUY No 31¢ $22 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 50¢ $47 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 8? SELL Yes 62¢ $48 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.43 · official $107.43 (match) · 76 history records