Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e10…fa58 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-23%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$21
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$15
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 36 -25.8% -32.9% 31% 31% -35.2%
≤90d 36 -25.8% -32.9% 31% 31% -35.2%
all 36 -25.8% -32.9% 31% 31% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 31% -35.2%
10% -39.3% 31% -41.4%
15% -45.2% 31% -47.1%
20% -50.6% 31% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage28d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $2 +$3 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 29 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 28 $2 +$3 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 28 $1 +$2 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 14d
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records