Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e0e…0a86 politics 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%2W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$1
other 29% $0
sports 13% −$3
crypto 8% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses2 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage125d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $112 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $112 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $112 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $115 −$3 -3%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $115 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Mar 30 $117 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $117 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $117 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $117 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $117 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $117 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $117 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $117 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $116 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $112 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $112 16h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $112 4d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $112 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $112 9d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $112 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $112 19d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $112 20d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 20d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 27d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 29d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $112 31d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $115 32d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $115 39d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $4 40d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 40d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 40d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 40d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 40d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 40d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 40d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 40d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 40d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $22 40d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $116 59d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $117 60d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $117 60d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $117 61d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $117 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records