Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3E 0x3e0d…4c47 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+19%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$3
world 41% +$7
culture 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.7% -5.3% 33% 33% +22.3%
≤30d 12 +4.7% -5.3% 33% 33% +22.3%
≤90d 12 +4.7% -5.3% 33% 33% +22.3%
all 12 +4.7% -5.3% 33% 33% +22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 33% +22.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 33% +10.6%
15% -22.6% 33% -0.1%
20% -30.2% 33% -9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×9.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.82 per $1 lost it wins $4.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions11
Markets (closed)12 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $11 +$7 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +81%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $1 1h
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $1 4h
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 99¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 16h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 48¢ $1 18h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 48¢ $1 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No $1 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No $1 18h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 49¢ $1 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 18h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 48¢ $1 18h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.41 · official $23.41 (match) · 107 history records