Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3e0d…c3fb crypto 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 711d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,362 (-12%) realized −$1,288 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%65W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$73
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$505
politics 24% −$1,264
sports 19% +$58
other 11% +$35
world 4% +$55
tech 1% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -16.8% -24.7% 40% 36% -6.5%
≤30d 103 -16.8% -24.7% 40% 36% -6.5%
≤90d 103 -16.8% -24.7% 40% 36% -6.5%
all 169 -15.0% -23.1% 38% 35% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 35% -21.3%
10% -30.4% 34% -28.8%
15% -37.1% 31% -35.7%
20% -43.3% 25% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$48 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

711d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$1,288
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses65 / 104
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)169 / 172
History coverage711d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 22¢ $160 $93 −$67 (-42%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$23 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $73 −$50 -68%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $91 +$70 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$41 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$17 +56%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $233 +$68 +29%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $83 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$76 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $83 +$45 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$35 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$25 +161%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$62 +297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$44 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$32 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$39 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $31 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $91 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.77 · official $105.83 (match) · 524 history records