Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:48:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

3E 0x3e0c…dab3 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$38 (+46%) realized +$40 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +230% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +187% what you keep after slip

Net edge+187%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown35%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day6.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+198.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+229.9%	+198.5%	67%	33%	+81.7%
≤30d	3	+229.9%	+198.5%	67%	33%	+81.7%
≤90d	3	+229.9%	+198.5%	67%	33%	+81.7%
all	3	+229.9%	+198.5%	67%	33%	+81.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+198.5%	33%	+81.7%
10%	+170.0%	33%	+64.3%
15%	+143.9%	33%	+48.4%
20%	+120.0%	33%	+33.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +101% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +230% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$29 vs −$20 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$42

Realized+$40

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)3 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day6.7

Drawdown35%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	67¢	64¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-4%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$14	$13	−$0 (-2%)
World Cup: Winless Team?	No	0¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-83%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 21	$10	$0	+4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$7	+$58	+785%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$14	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$5	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$5	8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	9h
World Cup: Winless Team?	BUY No	0¢	$1	10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$15	24h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$7	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.36 · official $42.36 (match) · 11 history records