Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3E 0x3e0b…0020 weather 367 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$807 (-3%) realized −$786 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate80%283W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$134
14 days−$285
30 days−$781
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1,002
other 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +4.5% -5.5% 37% 26% -0.3%
≤30d 182 -0.7% -10.2% 69% 20% -14.6%
≤90d 354 +0.3% -9.2% 80% 13% -13.1%
all 354 +0.3% -9.2% 80% 13% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 13% -13.1%
10% -17.9% 5% -21.4%
15% -25.8% 3% -29.0%
20% -33.1% 3% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$44 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized−$786
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses283 / 71
Open positions13
Markets (closed)354 / 367
History coverage68d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $312 $339 +$26 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 23? No 85¢ 95¢ $154 $171 +$17 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? No 87¢ 100¢ $88 $101 +$13 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? Yes 56¢ 99¢ $19 $34 +$15 (+79%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 23? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 23? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $21 −$18 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $109 +$22 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $30 +$165 +555%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $88 +$26 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $33 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $122 −$6 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $147 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $48 +$8 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 16? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$40 +1095%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$9 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $199 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$7 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 −$11 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $33 −$4 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$57 +265%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$65 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$60 +784%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$69 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $194 +$33 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $82 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 90¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 88¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 71¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 86¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 85¢ $116 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 56¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 51¢ $42 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $691.65 · official $691.65 (match) · 1529 history records