Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e0a…b9cc sports 224 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$96,642 (-15%) realized −$94,452 · open −$2,190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%108W / 79L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,830per market
Trades / day70.8pace
Fees−$1,232est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$63,626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$4,939
politics 14% −$38,080
sports 12% +$12,321
world 1% +$1,798
crypto 1% +$6,969
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 41% -3.5%
≤30d 167 +40.4% +27.0% 58% 47% -14.3%
≤90d 187 +37.5% +24.4% 58% 46% -11.3%
all 187 +37.5% +24.4% 58% 46% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.4% 46% -11.3%
10% +12.5% 41% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here +1.6% 37% -27.5%
20% -8.3% 34% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,511) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +71% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$843 vs −$1,287 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$63,626
Realized−$94,452
Unrealized−$2,190
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses108 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,232
Open positions68
Markets (closed)187 / 224
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$2,830
Trades / day70.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $7,600 $7,650 +$50 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $3,329 $4,851 +$1,521 (+46%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 85¢ 85¢ $4,584 $4,576 −$7 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $6,088 $4,482 −$1,605 (-26%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $4,164 $4,402 +$238 (+6%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $940 $2,928 +$1,987 (+211%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2,600 $2,650 +$50 (+2%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $2,350 $2,375 +$25 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $2,165 $2,158 −$8 (-0%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 67¢ $2,348 $1,784 −$563 (-24%)
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $1,554 $1,593 +$40 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1,060 $1,516 +$456 (+43%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2,140 $1,476 −$663 (-31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1,750 $1,421 −$329 (-19%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $1,311 $1,418 +$107 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1,092 $1,330 +$238 (+22%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 76¢ 90¢ $943 $1,121 +$178 (+19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $800 $1,070 +$270 (+34%)
Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? No 85¢ 89¢ $989 $1,034 +$45 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1,020 $790 −$230 (-23%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $830 $788 −$42 (-5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $710 $759 +$49 (+7%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $728 $741 +$13 (+2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 92¢ $696 $740 +$44 (+6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $950 $675 −$275 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $794 −$794 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10,248 −$1,080 -10%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,437 +$663 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $134 +$173 +129%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $555 +$945 +170%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $39,960 +$40 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $1,589 −$1,589 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,085 −$1,085 -100%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $201 +$8 +4%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $1,526 −$1,511 -99%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $444 +$1,056 +238%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $4,196 +$730 +17%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $11,966 +$623 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,206 +$764 +35%
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $71 $0 +0%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,486 +$1,190 +80%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $621 +$729 +117%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $165 −$165 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $341 −$341 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $544 −$544 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $261 −$261 -100%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 26 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 26 $207 −$207 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $595 −$595 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $713 −$713 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 26 $284 −$284 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $975 −$975 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,764 −$2,353 -49%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,527 −$1,527 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 26 $995 −$995 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $10,906 −$2,578 -24%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombia Jun 26 $2,711 −$2,711 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 26 $2,051 −$2,051 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 26 $571 −$289 -51%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 26 $176 +$24 +14%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 26 $330 +$570 +172%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $630 +$870 +138%
Will voter turnout be <48% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian pr Jun 26 $60 +$7 +11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,033 −$295 -28%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,616 +$526 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $23 18m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 18m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 41m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 42m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 43m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 43m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $254 44m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $828 45m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $21 45m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $36 45m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $10 45m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 45m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $46 45m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 33¢ $797 46m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $63 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $264 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $470 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 43¢ $1,041 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $274 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $548 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $274 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 44¢ $2,131 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 52¢ $1,025 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2,658 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 52¢ $2,055 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 53¢ $2,120 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 96¢ $96 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 96¢ $100 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 96¢ $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63,626.14 · official $63,637.92 (match) · 3500 history records