Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e08…f4be world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$13
other 17% −$1
politics 4% $0
weather 3% +$2
culture 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% +$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 19 -1.9% -11.2% 16% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 19 -1.9% -11.2% 16% 0% -11.1%
all 41 -0.4% -9.9% 41% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.5%
10% -18.5% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage479d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $71 −$1 -2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $73 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $41 −$9 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $63 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $15 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $49 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 -18%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $19 $0 -0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace be relegated? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $11 $0 -2%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 01 $2 $0 +8%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $1 $0 +7%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 31 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? Mar 30 $17 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Mar 24 $2 $0 +5%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 23 $17 $0 -0%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Mar 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 3? Mar 02 $16 +$1 +8%
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $16 −$1 -4%
UCLA vs. Northwestern Mar 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Visual Effects at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $36 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $36 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $9 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $11 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $23 38h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $14 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $17 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $3 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $34 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $34 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $15 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $33 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $25 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $12 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.69 · official $32.69 (match) · 136 history records