Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e05…32d8 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$255 (-6%) realized −$130 · open −$125
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate81%48W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days−$60
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% +$21
tech 25% +$43
crypto 20% −$124
world 19% −$144
sports 7% −$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +95.1% +76.6% 100% 100% +76.6%
≤30d 8 -7.3% -16.1% 62% 38% -12.6%
≤90d 11 -22.8% -30.2% 55% 27% -26.9%
all 59 -9.1% -17.7% 81% 17% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 17% -16.1%
10% -25.6% 8% -24.1%
15% -32.8% 7% -31.5%
20% -39.4% 5% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$55 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses48 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)59 / 65
History coverage340d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 89¢ 99¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 73¢ 99¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+36%)
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 62¢ $150 $1 −$149 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$48 +95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $100 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 25 $40 +$40 +100%
X Money released by April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Gr Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 19 $200 −$200 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Mar 09 $50 +$8 +16%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 23 $20 +$4 +22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106,000 on November 4? Jan 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on August 22? Jan 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? Jan 06 $200 +$13 +7%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? Dec 19 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Vitality win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 16 $100 +$67 +67%
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Dec 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Dec 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 19? Dec 02 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Apple acquire Mistral by November 30? Dec 02 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 19 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 7? Nov 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15? Nov 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November Nov 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? Nov 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? Nov 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Nove Nov 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 07 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? Nov 07 $50 $0 +1%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novemb Nov 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? Nov 06 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 5? Nov 06 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November Nov 05 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 05 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 3? Nov 03 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Nov 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31? Nov 01 $27 $0 +2%
US forces in Venezuela by October 31? Nov 01 $200 +$1 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on October 31? Oct 31 $20 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31? Oct 31 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 31 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octobe Oct 31 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 67¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 55¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 10d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $51 11d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 50¢ $51 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $101 14d
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $52 17d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 25d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $50 79d
X Money released by April 10, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 79d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 93d
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $20 103d
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $20 103d
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 114d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 98¢ $200 117d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 117d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Gr BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $50 123d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 158d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY No 82¢ $20 158d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 180d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $200 180d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $200 180d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 185d
Will Vitality win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 188d
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY No 98¢ $100 208d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 19? BUY No 97¢ $40 213d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? BUY No $20 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.26 · official $315.26 (match) · 288 history records