Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3e04…564d sports 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30,289 (-7%) realized −$30,096 · open −$193
Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%74W / 528L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,449per market
Trades / day84.8pace
Fees−$5,959est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$42,089
other 13% −$17,297
crypto 1% −$3,960
world 1% +$3,300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-78.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 472 -94.1% -94.7% 3% 3% -95.4%
≤30d 579 -77.5% -79.6% 12% 10% -80.2%
≤90d 602 -76.7% -78.9% 12% 10% -78.6%
all 602 -76.7% -78.9% 12% 10% -78.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -78.9% 10% -78.6%
10% -81.0% 10% -80.7%
15% ← realistic here -82.8% 10% -82.6%
20% -84.5% 10% -84.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$3,466) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -54% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,878 vs −$2,394 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$894
Realized−$30,096
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses74 / 528
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$5,959
Open positions3
Markets (closed)602 / 179
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$2,449
Trades / day84.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 602 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,015 $820 −$195 (-19%)
Spread: Montreal Alouettes (-8.5) Montreal Alouettes 51¢ 52¢ $59 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ 36¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Red Wings vs. Senators Jun 28 $5,102 −$5,102 -100%
Spread: Capitals (-1.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Kings Jun 28 $1,720 −$1,720 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Jun 28 $1,795 −$1,795 -100%
Falcons vs. Saints Jun 28 $938 −$938 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 28 $391 −$391 -100%
Sabres vs. Jets Jun 28 $3,418 −$3,418 -100%
Oilers vs. Islanders Jun 28 $5,916 −$5,916 -100%
Red Sox vs. Orioles Jun 28 $2,190 −$2,190 -100%
Derrick Henry: 2+ Touchdowns Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Avalanche vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $1,881 −$1,881 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights Jun 28 $2,520 −$2,520 -100%
Blues vs. Sabres Jun 28 $5,866 −$5,866 -100%
Devils vs. Stars Jun 28 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Giants vs. Mets Jun 28 $660 −$660 -100%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) Jun 28 $5,054 −$5,054 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 28 $6,789 −$6,789 -100%
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs Jun 28 $3,645 −$3,645 -100%
Yankees vs. Twins Jun 28 $146 −$146 -100%
Commanders vs. Vikings Jun 28 $4,708 −$4,708 -100%
Blues vs. Jets: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 40.5 Jun 28 $137 −$137 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-10.5) Jun 28 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Penguins vs. Kings Jun 28 $3,620 −$3,620 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes Jun 28 $2,640 −$2,640 -100%
Angels vs. Rangers Jun 28 $947 −$947 -100%
Ducks vs. Wild Jun 28 $8,550 −$8,550 -100%
Sabres vs. Devils Jun 28 $5,026 −$4,938 -98%
Blue Jackets vs. Devils Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $490 −$490 -100%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) Jun 28 $401 −$401 -100%
Predators vs. Kraken Jun 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Devils vs. Hurricanes Jun 28 $3,420 −$3,420 -100%
Stars vs. Blues Jun 28 $1,387 −$1,387 -100%
Rhamondre Stevenson: Anytime Touchdown Jun 28 $2,950 −$2,950 -100%
Pirates vs. Orioles Jun 28 $406 −$406 -100%
Kraken vs. Hurricanes Jun 28 $2,470 −$2,470 -100%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Blues vs. Panthers Jun 28 $3,660 −$3,660 -100%
Lightning vs. Hurricanes Jun 28 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jun 28 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Flames vs. Ducks Jun 28 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Rangers vs. Flames Jun 28 $5,646 −$5,646 -100%
Wild vs. Devils Jun 28 $3,016 −$3,016 -100%
Spread: Oregon State (-23.5) Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Sharks vs. Canucks Jun 28 $3,998 −$3,992 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Sabres Jun 28 $539 −$539 -100%
Canucks vs. Wild Jun 28 $1,104 −$1,104 -100%
Dodgers vs. Angels Jun 28 $3,432 −$3,432 -100%
Athletics vs. Rangers Jun 28 $259 −$259 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Montreal Alouettes (-8.5) BUY Montreal Alouettes 51¢ $12 55m
Spread: Montreal Alouettes (-8.5) BUY Montreal Alouettes 51¢ $46 55m
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 58m
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $8 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $108 1h
Spread: Montreal Alouettes (-8.5) BUY Montreal Alouettes 51¢ $1 9h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions: O/U 56.5 BUY Over 98¢ $83 10h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions: O/U 56.5 BUY Over 96¢ $19 10h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions: O/U 56.5 BUY Over 95¢ $8 10h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $698 11h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $3 11h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 11h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $16 11h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $13 11h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 11h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 11h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $15 11h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $32 11h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 11h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions: O/U 56.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,114 14h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions BUY British Columbia Lions 51¢ $31 16h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions: O/U 56.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 17h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions: O/U 56.5 BUY Over 55¢ $404 17h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions: O/U 56.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,672 17h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions BUY British Columbia Lions 51¢ $21 19h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions: O/U 56.5 BUY Over 54¢ $148 20h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions BUY British Columbia Lions 51¢ $31 21h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions: O/U 56.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 32h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions: O/U 56.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,885 32h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions: O/U 56.5 BUY Over 53¢ $232 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $893.55 · official $893.55 (match) · 3500 history records