Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e03…7d56 other 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 222L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$31
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$42
sports 26% −$22
culture 8% −$8
politics 7% −$6
crypto 6% −$8
economics 5% −$5
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 234 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage140d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $410 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $285 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $911 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $451 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $143 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $119 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $971 −$2 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $595 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $313 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $221 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $219 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $198 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $252 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $408 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $650 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $782 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $495 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $484 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $329 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $287 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $291 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $356 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 4h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $57 14h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $57 15h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $57 17h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $57 19h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 21h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 23h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 32h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 33h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 34h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 36h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 38h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 39h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 40h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 3d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.87 · official $56.87 (match) · 1437 history records