Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e00…ae18 world 41 markets active 2d ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$3
other 15% −$3
politics 9% −$1
tech 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 14 -1.0% -10.5% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -1.0% -10.5% 29% 0% -9.9%
all 41 -2.0% -11.3% 22% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage246d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $103 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $63 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $57 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $53 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $52 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $1 $0 -11%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $16 $0 -2%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $17 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 21 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year Oct 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 19 $17 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 17 $22 −$3 -14%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 14 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $7 37h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $42 37h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $50 37h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $47 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $2 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $50 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $41 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $52 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $49 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $24 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $19 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $55 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $57 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $45 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $52 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $57 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records