Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3D 0x3dfb…165c other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 705d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15,572 (-30%) realized −$15,570 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$969per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$2,110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$11,117
other 33% −$5,272
world 11% +$2,895
sports 7% −$2,077
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 50 -30.0% -36.6% 42% 28% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 28% -38.1%
10% -42.7% 24% -44.1%
15% -48.2% 20% -49.5%
20% -53.3% 16% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,430) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$306 vs −$758 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$2,110
Realized−$15,570
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage705d
Avg bet$969
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $1,873 $1,872 −$1 (-0%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals No 72¢ 72¢ $202 $200 −$1 (-1%)
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals No 74¢ 76¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $2,352 +$114 +5%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-15? Sep 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 03 $1,365 −$1,365 -100%
Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 03 $2,160 −$96 -4%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 24 $7,093 −$7,093 -100%
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? Oct 18 $3,699 −$3,699 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua beat Daniel Dubois? Oct 17 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Eddie Howe be England's next manager? Oct 17 $108 +$123 +114%
Shahbazyan vs. Meerschaert Sep 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Valentin vs. Loder Sep 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the US Open? Sep 21 $504 −$504 -100%
Magny vs. Morales Sep 21 $4 +$1 +15%
Hill vs. Ricci Sep 21 $3 +$2 +92%
Cannonier vs. Borralho Sep 21 $386 +$173 +45%
Will Ipswich Town beat Manchester City? Aug 24 $315 +$10 +3%
Will Manchester City win vs Chelsea? Aug 19 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Brentford beat Crystal Palace? Aug 19 $1,430 −$1,430 -100%
Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? Aug 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ipswich Town vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Aug 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ipswich Town beat Liverpool? Aug 18 $289 −$279 -96%
Will Manchester United beat Fulham? Aug 17 $558 −$555 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Atalanta: UEFA Super Cup Aug 16 $185 +$2 +1%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 11 $23 +$6 +25%
Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? Aug 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Karsten Warholm (NOR) win Gold in 400m Hurdles? Aug 09 $5,397 +$2,895 +54%
Will Spain win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? Aug 09 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the USA win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay? Aug 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Erriyon Knighton (USA) win Gold in 200m? Aug 08 $1,820 +$36 +2%
Will Kenneth Bednarek (USA) win Gold in 200m? Aug 08 $3,646 +$375 +10%
Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 200m? Aug 08 $706 +$27 +4%
Trump and Biden both win nomination? Aug 08 $100 +$348 +346%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 06 $6,444 +$977 +15%
Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m? Aug 04 $2,480 −$2,476 -100%
Will Kishane Thompson (JAM) win Gold in 100m? Aug 04 $21 +$14 +67%
Will Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) win Gold in Men's Tennis? Aug 04 $202 +$218 +108%
Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? Aug 03 $15 +$5 +30%
NFL: Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears Aug 02 $1,869 −$1,869 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev (GER) win Gold in Men's Tennis? Aug 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jiayu Xu (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke? Jul 30 $20 −$19 -95%
India vs. Sri Lanka - 2nd Cricket T20I Match Jul 29 $43 +$17 +40%
UFC 304: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape Jul 28 $228 −$35 -16%
Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 400m Freestyle? Jul 28 $565 −$565 -100%
Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? Jul 28 $22 −$22 -100%
India vs. Sri Lanka - Cricket T20I Jul 27 $213 −$178 -84%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 22 $1,453 +$4 +0%
Will another golfer win the British Open? Jul 21 $1,447 +$888 +61%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jul 21 $345 −$345 -100%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 21 $258 −$152 -59%
UFC Fight Night: Who will win - Garcia vs. Choi Jul 21 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 20 $162 +$192 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $58 1h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $145 1h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $14 1h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $24 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $1,879 2d
Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-15? BUY No 56¢ $120 279d
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,365 594d
Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election? SELL Yes 43¢ $2,035 594d
Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 594d
Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 594d
Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election? SELL Yes 43¢ $27 594d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,558 596d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $53 605d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 605d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 605d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $145 605d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $155 605d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $114 605d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $165 605d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $166 605d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $169 605d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,082 605d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,365 606d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $159 606d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 606d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 606d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 606d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $476 606d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $83 606d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 59¢ $63 606d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,110.49 · official $2,111.89 (match) · 368 history records