Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3df8…77b2 other 29 markets active 16h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-5%) realized −$23 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$17
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$4
crypto 6% $0
world 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -18.1% -25.9% 31% 31% -19.0%
≤30d 20 -16.6% -24.5% 40% 25% -20.0%
≤90d 20 -16.6% -24.5% 40% 25% -20.0%
all 20 -16.6% -24.5% 40% 25% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 25% -20.0%
10% -31.7% 25% -27.7%
15% -38.3% 25% -34.6%
20% -44.4% 25% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions9
Markets (closed)20 / 29
History coverage26d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $22 $31 +$9 (+42%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+15%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 78¢ $10 $13 +$4 (+38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-25%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +226%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $19 +$20 +103%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 24 $2 +$3 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 15h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.19 · official $124.75 (match) · 441 history records