Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3df4…a772 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$430 (-24%) realized −$405 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184
7 days−$208
14 days−$208
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$122
crypto 23% −$373
politics 15% −$153
sports 14% −$25
culture 12% +$25
tech 6% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -60.9% -64.6% 30% 30% -73.5%
≤30d 10 -60.9% -64.6% 30% 30% -73.5%
≤90d 17 -69.5% -72.4% 24% 24% -77.5%
all 24 -43.5% -48.9% 42% 42% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.9% 42% -42.7%
10% -53.8% 25% -48.2%
15% -58.2% 8% -53.2%
20% -62.3% 4% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$56 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$405
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage179d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 54¢ 37¢ $81 $56 −$25 (-31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Jun 20 $37 +$13 +35%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Apr 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 25 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev Apr 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Apr 25 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Apr 25 $94 −$94 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 25 $117 +$33 +28%
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? Jan 10 $78 −$14 -19%
Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 4+ times during the next Prime Minister Jan 07 $9 +$1 +12%
Bulls vs. Celtics Jan 07 $141 +$29 +20%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $92 +$48 +52%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jan 03 $75 +$25 +33%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Dec 26 $40 +$10 +27%
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is Y Dec 26 $225 +$25 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 63¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 23¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $151 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 99d
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev BUY Rublev 72¢ $65 163d
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $63 163d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? BUY Yes 59¢ $94 165d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? BUY Yes 66¢ $86 165d
Bulls vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 83¢ $141 168d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 66¢ $92 170d
Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 4+ times during the next Prime Minister BUY Yes 89¢ $9 170d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 54¢ $38 177d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 54¢ $43 177d
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $78 177d
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $142 177d
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 75¢ $75 177d
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $3 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.16 · official $161.16 · 233 history records