Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3df4…a60d crypto 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (114 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+11%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate71%103W / 43L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day114.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$11
other 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (114 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 +8.9% -1.5% 71% 40% -4.7%
≤30d 146 +8.9% -1.5% 71% 40% -4.7%
≤90d 146 +8.9% -1.5% 71% 40% -4.7%
all 146 +8.9% -1.5% 71% 40% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 40% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 29% -13.9%
15% -19.5% 20% -22.2%
20% -27.4% 12% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses103 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day114.4
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Down 68¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.09 · official $2.09 (match) · 391 history records