Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3df3…2b98 sports 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%8W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$6
other 18% −$5
politics 16% −$3
crypto 10% −$1
economics 9% −$1
world 7% −$1
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.2%
all 190 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses8 / 182
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)190 / 191
History coverage171d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? No 90¢ 90¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $115 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 18 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 25 $81 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $91 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 25 $178 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 25 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 25 $112 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $417 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $244 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $266 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $113 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $113 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $201 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $122 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $158 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $39 1h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $27 7d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $27 8d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $19 15d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $20 15d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $38 26d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $38 27d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 89¢ $31 38d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 91¢ $32 38d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $33 119d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $33 119d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $40 119d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $40 119d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $27 119d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $27 119d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 119d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 119d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 119d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 119d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 119d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 119d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $32 119d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $32 119d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $32 119d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $32 119d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 121d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 121d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $38 121d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $38 121d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.88 · official $38.88 (match) · 725 history records