Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3df0…9526 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$41 (-4%) realized −$45 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day70.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -19.8% -27.4% 52% 33% -24.7%
≤30d 27 -19.8% -27.4% 52% 33% -24.7%
≤90d 27 -19.8% -27.4% 52% 33% -24.7%
all 27 -19.8% -27.4% 52% 33% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 33% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 15% -31.9%
15% -40.7% 15% -38.5%
20% -46.5% 11% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day70.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 75¢ 90¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $77 +$57 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $76 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$14 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $12 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $37 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.23 · official $15.13 · 96 history records