Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3def…a16a other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 704d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$757 (-55%) realized −$757 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$143
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$686
other 15% −$60
politics 4% −$58
crypto 3% −$42
world 1% −$20
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -30.5% -37.1% 19% 11% -54.2%
≤30d 31 -29.1% -35.8% 19% 13% -26.5%
≤90d 33 -33.2% -39.6% 18% 12% -69.8%
all 40 -36.6% -42.6% 22% 12% -69.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 12% -69.8%
10% -48.1% 10% -72.7%
15% -53.1% 10% -75.3%
20% -57.7% 8% -77.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$35 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

704d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$757
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 31
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage704d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 $0 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 +$4 +63%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $1 $0 +48%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$74 +1024%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $74 +$124 +168%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $14 −$6 -45%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys May 08 $82 −$82 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots May 08 $599 −$576 -96%
Nuggets vs. Bucks Jan 24 $50 +$5 +10%
Bengals vs. Ravens Nov 28 $60 −$10 -17%
Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 28 $10 +$1 +9%
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? Nov 28 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Biden drops out in July? Oct 29 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto/Bitcoin" during RNC speech? Jul 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $26 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 32h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 34h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records