Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dea…f2d1 sports 64 markets active 2d ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%27W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$22
world 26% −$3
politics 25% −$21
sports 13% +$9
crypto 4% −$27
weather 2% +$25
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +50.1% +35.8% 75% 75% +37.9%
≤30d 4 +50.1% +35.8% 75% 75% +37.9%
≤90d 16 +12.2% +1.5% 44% 44% -11.1%
all 64 +1.1% -8.5% 42% 25% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 25% -10.5%
10% -17.3% 23% -19.1%
15% -25.3% 23% -26.9%
20% -32.6% 22% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage575d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 15 $18 +$9 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $12 +$7 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +193%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 15 $681 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $302 −$18 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? May 14 $24 +$16 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 11 $6 +$10 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6? May 08 $10 +$14 +143%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3? May 05 $13 −$13 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30? May 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 28? May 03 $5 +$5 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 21? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Wild vs. Utah Mar 04 $17 +$13 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 26? Feb 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers Feb 26 $10 +$4 +43%
Celtics vs. Lakers Feb 24 $18 +$17 +92%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Fe Feb 22 $14 +$9 +66%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 21 $4 −$4 -100%
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack Feb 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia Feb 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Feb 07 $11 +$13 +121%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Feb 06 $18 +$17 +96%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Feb 02 $11 +$13 +117%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jan 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jan 04 $5 +$7 +150%
Jazz vs. Clippers Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Dec 04 $229 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 04 $242 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 04 $237 $0 -0%
Will Rob Riggle win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Dec 04 $245 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 04 $245 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? Nov 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 05 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 26 $23 $0 -1%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 26 $19 $0 -2%
Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Sep 23 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Sep 23 $7 $0 -7%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 17 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 15? Sep 15 $20 −$12 -60%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Sep 05 $15 $0 -2%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 66¢ $18 45h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $680 33d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $681 33d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $667 33d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $668 33d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 86¢ $284 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? BUY Down 59¢ $24 37d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $6 40d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 42d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 45d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30? BUY Down 37¢ $17 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 28? BUY No 46¢ $5 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 26? BUY No 66¢ $22 53d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 21? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 57d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $17 59d
Wild vs. Utah BUY Utah 57¢ $17 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 26? BUY Up 42¢ $13 111d
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers BUY Timberwolves 70¢ $10 112d
Celtics vs. Lakers BUY Celtics 52¢ $18 114d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Fe BUY No 60¢ $14 116d
Rockets vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 42¢ $4 118d
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack BUY North Carolina Tar Heels 29¢ $4 119d
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia BUY Czechia 56¢ $17 122d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe BUY Yes 45¢ $11 131d
Grizzlies vs. Kings BUY Grizzlies 51¢ $18 132d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 91¢ $302 136d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 46¢ $11 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.68 · official $27.68 (match) · 238 history records