Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3D 0x3de7…bbb8 politics 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,976 (-25%) realized −$4,184 · open +$208
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate18%22W / 98L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$72
14 days−$167
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$2,584
other 27% −$1,200
tech 12% −$1,050
world 11% +$254
crypto 2% −$75
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -63.8% -67.3% 0% 0% -40.7%
≤30d 13 -42.1% -47.6% 15% 15% -47.5%
≤90d 24 -35.8% -41.9% 21% 21% -31.5%
all 120 -35.4% -41.6% 18% 15% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.6% 15% -40.8%
10% -47.2% 13% -46.4%
15% -52.3% 10% -51.6%
20% -56.9% 8% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$62 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$878
Realized−$4,184
Unrealized+$208
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)120 / 126
History coverage519d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 53¢ 87¢ $392 $648 +$256 (+65%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $237 $186 −$51 (-21%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? No 1¢ 2¢ $12 $27 +$15 (+125%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of USR? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 21 $11 −$5 -46%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 21 $15 −$12 -82%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 21 $124 −$11 -9%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 21 $37 −$22 -60%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 12 $52 −$27 -52%
Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 10 $62 −$57 -92%
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 10 $25 −$24 -99%
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +228%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 09 $51 +$12 +24%
Exact Score: Romania 3 - 1 Wales? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 10 $11 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 10 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 10 $16 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 10 $16 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 10 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $632 −$21 -3%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -2%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 06 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? Apr 01 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the US strike Cuba next? Feb 07 $22 −$22 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Feb 07 $44 −$22 -50%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026? Feb 02 $5 −$1 -28%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump say "Zelensky" during conference with Putin on August 15? Aug 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 15 $24 −$3 -11%
June 12 internet outages caused by a hack? Jun 13 $52 −$28 -54%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jun 13 $55 −$3 -6%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? May 18 $314 −$134 -43%
Will George Simion win by 0–6%? May 18 $142 −$100 -71%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 18 $140 −$117 -84%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 18 $117 +$20 +17%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 13 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 10 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next elec May 10 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the second most votes in the first round of the May 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Victor Ponta advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff May 10 $140 −$140 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Victor Ponta win the second most votes in the first round of the May 10 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 05 $637 −$197 -31%
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 05 $1,546 −$919 -60%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 04 $34 −$10 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? BUY No 1¢ $12 2h
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 2h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $105 2h
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 2h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $114 2h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 26h
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 26h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 26h
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 26h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 26h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $556 7d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $37 8d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $593 8d
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 10d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $25 10d
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 12d
Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 12d
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 12d
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 13d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 58¢ $63 13d
Exact Score: Romania 3 - 1 Wales? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 18d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $397 18d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 45¢ $51 18d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $878.39 · official $878.39 (match) · 511 history records