Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3de6…e560
crypto · 543 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,490 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,064 · open −$363
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,421
Realized−$2,064
Unrealized−$363
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses157 / 337
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions252
Markets (closed)494 / 543
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day604.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 252 History 494 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,018
7 days−$2,064
14 days−$2,064
30 days−$2,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 97¢ 100¢ $793 $813 +$20 (+3%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 50¢ 76¢ $514 $774 +$260 (+51%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $465 $486 +$21 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $498 $437 −$61 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $342 $376 +$33 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $261 $275 +$15 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $298 $252 −$46 (-15%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 89¢ $215 $219 +$5 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $217 $217 +$1 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $179 $177 −$2 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 7¢ 17¢ $46 $120 +$74 (+163%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $117 $119 +$2 (+2%)
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 71¢ $79 $103 +$24 (+30%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
World Cup: Total Tournament Goals O/U 264.5 Under 23¢ 21¢ $108 $99 −$9 (-9%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 37¢ 19¢ $190 $97 −$92 (-49%)
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 44¢ $120 $95 −$25 (-21%)
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 74¢ $75 $86 +$11 (+14%)
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 61¢ $87 $84 −$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $84 $84 −$1 (-1%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $67 $81 +$14 (+21%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $78 $80 +$2 (+2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 73¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$2 -128%
Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 13 $13 −$27 -210%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 11PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 13 $1 −$3 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 +$2 +1313%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -127%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 13 $19 −$39 -200%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 6PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$11 -202%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$11 -138%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 80% −$274
crypto 16% +$68
sports 2% −$71
world 1% +$2
politics 1% −$78
tech 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 8m
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 50¢ $4 9m
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 35¢ $1 11m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 57¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 45m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 45m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 45m
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 56m
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 59m
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 72¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Will Noah Okafor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 494 -27.5% -34.4% 32% 26% -36.0%
≤30d 494 -27.5% -34.4% 32% 26% -36.0%
≤90d 494 -27.5% -34.4% 32% 26% -36.0%
all 494 -27.5% -34.4% 32% 26% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover604.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.4% 26% -36.0%
10% ← realistic here -40.7% 21% -42.2%
15% -46.4% 16% -47.7%
20% -51.7% 11% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,420.89 · official $8,419.36 (match) · 3500 history records