Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3de3…6880 crypto 272 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$221 (+9%) realized +$243 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%139W / 127L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days+$35
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$54
other 23% −$27
sports 22% +$151
economics 6% −$2
world 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 44% -11.7%
≤30d 76 +13.5% +2.7% 49% 49% -0.8%
≤90d 266 +4.2% -5.8% 52% 52% -0.7%
all 266 +4.2% -5.8% 52% 52% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 52% -0.7%
10% -14.8% 49% -10.2%
15% -23.0% 48% -18.9%
20% -30.6% 45% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized+$243
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses139 / 127
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)266 / 272
History coverage45d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $40 −$20 (-34%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? No 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $50 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 +$12 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $155 −$2 -1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$12 +226%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $301 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $5 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 41¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Donstu Esports 38¢ $5 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $5 29h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 39h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 30¢ $5 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $10 5d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $5 5d
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY Royal Never Give Up 68¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $45 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.82 · official $357.82 (match) · 553 history records