Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3D 0x3de3…2fc5 other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5,878 (+12%) realized +$5,880 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate67%61W / 30L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$69
14 days+$677
30 days+$1,844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$5,222
world 2% +$825
sports 1% −$155
crypto 1% +$457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 0% -4.6%
≤30d 14 +91.5% +73.3% 71% 50% +5.8%
≤90d 91 +18.7% +7.4% 67% 59% +2.8%
all 91 +18.7% +7.4% 67% 59% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 59% +2.8%
10% -2.9% 47% -7.0%
15% -12.3% 33% -16.0%
20% -20.9% 29% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$631) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$322 vs −$444 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$5,880
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses61 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)91 / 95
History coverage72d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 94¢ 94¢ $191 $191 −$0 (-0%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals No 50¢ 48¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 11¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,219 +$64 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $107 +$14 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$265 +1011%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $496 +$457 +92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $671 +$236 +35%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,768 +$79 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,192 −$1,182 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $554 +$114 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $188 +$832 +442%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $63 −$63 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2,377 +$1,184 +50%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $476 +$349 +73%
Will NAC Breda vs. SC Heerenveen end in a draw? May 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will NAC Breda win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $24 −$4 -15%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2,521 +$753 +30%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,201 +$222 +18%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $86 +$8 +10%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $461 −$461 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $36 +$9 +27%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $564 +$188 +33%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $1,568 +$2,344 +150%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $972 +$213 +22%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $1,135 −$1,135 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $420 −$410 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $578 +$1,175 +203%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $270 +$181 +67%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $413 +$117 +28%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $588 +$588 +100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1,715 +$943 +55%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $87 +$119 +138%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $445 −$433 -97%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $86 +$11 +13%
Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $284 +$54 +19%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $231 +$135 +59%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $913 +$1,186 +130%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,494 −$1,445 -97%
Will NEC vs. Telstar 1963 end in a draw? May 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 02 $81 +$19 +23%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $136 +$58 +43%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $478 +$1,188 +248%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $421 −$421 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $462 −$462 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 30 $71 +$43 +61%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $130 +$58 +45%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $1,029 +$689 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $8 57m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $81 57m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $10 59m
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $6 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $5 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $10 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $103 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $48 25h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $70 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $90 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $90 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $38 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $454 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $194 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $90 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $192 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $144 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $107 10d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $104 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $11 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $47 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $47 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $47 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $140 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $47 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $452 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $47 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.35 · official $234.35 (match) · 505 history records