Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3de1…563f
other · 4 markets active 268d ago
5.5score
+$61,056 +182%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$61,056 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$106
Realized+$61,056
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage73d
Avg bet$8,368
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 0 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out in 2025? No 94¢ 100¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Dec 04 $200 +$27 +14%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Dec 04 $33,024 +$61,018 +185%
Israel strike on Damascus by August 31? Sep 17 $150 +$4 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Aug 30 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% +$61,024
world 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 34¢ $2,500 268d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 34¢ $5,486 268d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 37¢ $1,000 269d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 38¢ $500 269d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 38¢ $2,000 269d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 32¢ $5,940 273d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 34¢ $3,000 275d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 32¢ $2,000 275d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 31¢ $3,647 277d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 29¢ $2,477 281d
Israel strike on Damascus by August 31? BUY No 97¢ $150 285d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $100 285d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 34¢ $1,000 285d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? BUY No 88¢ $200 285d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL Yes 33¢ $3,928 292d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY Yes 24¢ $181 334d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY Yes 24¢ $300 334d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY Yes 33¢ $200 334d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY Yes 32¢ $800 335d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY Yes 25¢ $393 338d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 338d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY Yes 36¢ $200 341d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,200 341d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 4 +51.9% +37.5% 100% 50% +155.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.5% 50% +155.5%
10% ← realistic here +24.3% 25% +131.1%
15% +12.3% 25% +108.7%
20% +1.3% 25% +88.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.38 · official $106.38 (match) · 28 history records