Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3ddf…4063 crypto 718 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (148 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,639 (+12%) realized +$2,619 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%391W / 326L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day148.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$221
7 days−$5,418
14 days+$659
30 days+$659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$678
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (148 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 445 -50.7% -55.4% 27% 26% -41.7%
≤30d 717 +7.7% -2.6% 55% 54% -6.7%
≤90d 717 +7.7% -2.6% 55% 54% -6.7%
all 717 +7.7% -2.6% 55% 54% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 54% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 54% -15.6%
15% -20.4% 53% -23.8%
20% -28.2% 50% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$30 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$2,619
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses391 / 326
Open positions1
Markets (closed)717 / 718
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day148.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 717 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 66¢ 100¢ $40 $60 +$20 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$31 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$17 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$22 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$41 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$33 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $82 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$26 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$36 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$25 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$56 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$26 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$31 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$25 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$26 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$19 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$16 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$22 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $20 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $24 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $18 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.54 · official $58.94 (match) · 3500 history records