Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dde…fb77 crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (356 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$23 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day355.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (356 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -25.6% -32.7% 36% 32% -9.8%
≤30d 87 -25.6% -32.7% 36% 32% -9.8%
≤90d 87 -25.6% -32.7% 36% 32% -9.8%
all 87 -25.6% -32.7% 36% 32% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover355.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.7% 32% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -39.1% 29% -18.5%
15% -45.0% 23% -26.3%
20% -50.4% 21% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day355.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 55¢ 38¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$13 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $75 −$30 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$16 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $15 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $19 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $23 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $20 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $16 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.00 · official $9.18 · 400 history records