Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dd9…7f5c other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$1
other 29% −$2
politics 6% −$2
crypto 4% +$2
economics 3% $0
sports 2% +$10
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 7% -9.5%
all 53 +8.5% -1.9% 49% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 6% -8.7%
10% -11.2% 2% -17.4%
15% -19.8% 2% -25.4%
20% -27.7% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage472d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ 78¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+69%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $25 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $19 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $24 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $77 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $68 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $12 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 25 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +11%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? May 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 25 $7 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $6 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 22 $2 +$10 +475%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 18 $5 −$1 -28%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 16 $1 $0 -25%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 11 $11 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 07 $15 −$2 -13%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $1 $0 +10%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 26 $9 −$1 -13%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 21 $17 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $18 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $5 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $15 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $24 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $7 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $3 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $14 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $41 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $41 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records