Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3D 0x3dd3…742d sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$175 (+9%) realized +$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$165
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$161
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +36.3% +23.3% 50% 50% -11.7%
≤90d 8 +16.6% +5.5% 62% 62% -1.4%
all 8 +16.6% +5.5% 62% 62% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 62% -1.4%
10% -4.6% 62% -10.9%
15% -13.8% 50% -19.5%
20% -22.2% 50% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$225 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage63d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $95 +$165 +172%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 25 $174 −$171 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $220 −$218 -99%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 15 $231 +$169 +73%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $274 +$276 +101%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 07 $263 +$137 +52%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 03 $259 +$88 +34%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 15 $286 −$286 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $95 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $174 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $220 30d
Avalanche vs. Wild BUY Avalanche 57¢ $231 36d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 49¢ $274 40d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 65¢ $263 43d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 74¢ $259 52d
Rangers vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 53¢ $286 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.97 · official $49.97 (match) · 14 history records