Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dd2…3c02 crypto 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$239 (-16%) realized −$233 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$258
other 2% −$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 58 -35.7% -41.9% 26% 19% -35.6%
all 89 -20.8% -28.3% 36% 29% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 29% -25.1%
10% -35.2% 19% -32.3%
15% -41.5% 13% -38.8%
20% -47.2% 10% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$233
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)89 / 92
History coverage97d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 16 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 16 $7 −$3 -36%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 16 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 07 $30 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 07 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 07 $25 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 07 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 07 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 07 $6 −$3 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 27 $75 −$46 -61%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 26 $30 −$6 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 26 $31 +$9 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 26 $20 +$5 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 26 $31 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 26 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 26 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 26 $13 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 26 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 26 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 25 $40 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 24 $38 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 24 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 24 $16 +$10 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 24 $25 −$13 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 24 $16 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 24 $55 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 24 $22 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 24 $11 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 24 $30 +$27 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 18 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 18 $25 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 18 $25 −$19 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 8m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 30d
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $20 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $27 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $20 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $3 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $19 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $6 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $2 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.39 · official $32.39 (match) · 385 history records