Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3dd1…557e
weather · 500 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$185 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$174 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$381
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses294 / 190
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions16
Markets (closed)484 / 500
History coverage47d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 16 History 484 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$338
7 days−$4,260
14 days−$3,043
30 days−$1,114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 61¢ 58¢ $135 $129 −$6 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 13? No 75¢ 80¢ $111 $117 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 95¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 76¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 48¢ 36¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 50¢ 66¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 72¢ 86¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 89¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 42¢ 41¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 67¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 54¢ 65¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 46¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 59¢ 44¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 69¢ 40¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 27¢ 5¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $15 −$5 -35%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $13 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $28 +$7 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $72 +$29 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $23 +$15 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +78%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $12 +$8 +69%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $9 +$11 +126%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 +$3 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$19 +164%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $163 −$13 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $22 +$2 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$4 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $156 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +179%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $22 +$8 +38%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $128 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $17 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $91 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $24 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +121%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $74 +$21 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $114 +$43 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $35 −$25 -71%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $76 −$51 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% −$70
sports 3% −$112
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 37¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 63¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 63¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 42¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 41¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 39¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 46¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 -42.8% -48.3% 33% 27% -50.0%
≤30d 422 -8.3% -17.0% 59% 50% -14.9%
≤90d 484 +0.6% -9.0% 61% 52% -10.2%
all 484 +0.6% -9.0% 61% 52% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 52% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 35% -18.8%
15% -25.6% 23% -26.7%
20% -32.9% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.87 · official $369.02 · 2541 history records