Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dcb…dd18 sports 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%6W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$3
sports 23% −$2
other 20% −$3
economics 11% $0
crypto 9% −$2
world 5% −$2
tech 4% −$1
culture 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
all 169 -0.0% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses6 / 163
Open positions0
Markets (closed)169 / 169
History coverage163d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 169 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 17 $50 $0 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 21 $46 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 20 $98 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $151 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $274 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $146 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $156 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $147 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 17 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $49 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $50 8h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 8d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 8d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $37 16d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $37 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $50 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $51 30d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $47 116d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $47 116d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 95¢ $46 116d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $46 116d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 116d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 116d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 116d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 116d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $46 116d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $46 116d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $53 116d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $53 116d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $48 116d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 95¢ $48 116d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 116d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 116d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $45 116d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $45 116d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 93¢ $45 116d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 93¢ $45 116d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $13 116d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $39 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 551 history records