Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3dc7…b7df other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$517 (-10%) realized −$511 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$302
politics 6% −$172
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -10.5% -19.0% 0% 0% -19.0%
≤30d 1 -10.5% -19.0% 0% 0% -19.0%
≤90d 1 -10.5% -19.0% 0% 0% -19.0%
all 16 +10.0% -0.5% 38% 31% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 31% -18.9%
10% -10.0% 31% -26.6%
15% -18.7% 25% -33.7%
20% -26.7% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$144 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$511
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage240d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $80 $66 −$14 (-18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+56%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $156 −$16 -10%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 17 $57 +$31 +55%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $280 −$31 -11%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $362 −$362 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Jan 03 $648 −$648 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 13 $200 +$1 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 12 $1,966 +$534 +27%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 14 $270 −$158 -58%
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean president Nov 12 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential Nov 09 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidentia Nov 09 $10 −$1 -5%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 08 $221 +$220 +100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 08 $52 +$44 +84%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $30 +$148 +493%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $27 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 35d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 35d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 35d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $36 35d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $82 35d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $99 74d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 29¢ $88 97d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 97d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 19¢ $57 97d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $157 97d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $159 104d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $141 120d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $69 133d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $69 133d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $74 141d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 150d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $21 150d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 152d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $80 152d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 152d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $80 152d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $11 170d
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $149 170d
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $199 170d
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $498 172d
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $362 191d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $201 191d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $160 191d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? SELL No 83¢ $846 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.48 · official $104.51 (match) · 184 history records