Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dc0…af22 crypto 1207 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$171 (+0%) realized +$168 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate63%756W / 450L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day57.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$241
14 days−$253
30 days−$871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$289
sports 28% −$335
other 5% −$74
world 0% +$3
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -12.9% -21.2% 66% 44% -16.7%
≤30d 669 -6.7% -15.5% 66% 49% -14.1%
≤90d 1206 -4.8% -13.8% 63% 49% -10.9%
all 1206 -4.8% -13.8% 63% 49% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 49% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -19.5%
15% -29.6% 23% -27.2%
20% -36.5% 14% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$168
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses756 / 450
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1206 / 1207
History coverage50d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day57.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 86¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji Jun 17 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $153 +$4 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $36 +$6 +16%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $34 +$4 +13%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $132 +$3 +2%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $123 +$9 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $50 +$12 +24%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $105 +$5 +5%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $29 +$4 +13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $24 +$4 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $31 +$8 +26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $29 +$2 +6%
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$3 +73%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $28 +$1 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $29 +$8 +29%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $25 +$5 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $36 +$3 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $23 +$2 +11%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $7 +$1 +19%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $202 −$114 -57%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $25 −$14 -57%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $70 +$11 +16%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $75 +$7 +10%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$7 +56%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 14 $121 +$8 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$8 +15%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $69 +$5 +8%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $78 +$6 +7%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $170 +$7 +4%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Caijsa Hennemann vs Julia Avdeeva Jun 13 $164 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $20 51m
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji SELL Haruka Kaji 100¢ $45 57m
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji BUY Haruka Kaji 89¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $153 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 5h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 86¢ $36 10h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $39 11h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson SELL Fiona Ferro 90¢ $103 11h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Fiona Ferro 87¢ $100 11h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 88¢ $34 11h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $135 11h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 98¢ $132 11h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $132 13h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 93¢ $123 13h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya SELL Elina Svitolina 100¢ $62 13h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 80¢ $50 14h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 99¢ $111 14h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 94¢ $105 15h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 86¢ $34 16h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $34 24h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 97¢ $33 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $29 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $24 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 33h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva SELL Susan Bandecchi 96¢ $39 34h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 69¢ $10 34h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 79¢ $21 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $31 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $29 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.76 · official $22.76 (match) · 3160 history records