Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3dbf…a9ff sports 318 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,051 (+11%) realized +$1,054 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%171W / 144L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$25
14 days+$56
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$995
sports 29% −$22
other 10% −$161
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +19.5% +8.1% 53% 53% -4.7%
≤30d 99 +8.7% -1.7% 52% 51% -3.3%
≤90d 315 +8.2% -2.1% 54% 54% -1.6%
all 315 +8.2% -2.1% 54% 54% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 54% -1.6%
10% -11.5% 52% -11.0%
15% -20.0% 51% -19.6%
20% -27.9% 47% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$28 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$1,054
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses171 / 144
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions3
Markets (closed)315 / 318
History coverage78d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 52¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $33 −$23 -69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +110%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$38 +188%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$18 +172%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 +$29 +109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $26 +$19 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 +$5 +52%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $28 −$28 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $20 +$1 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $46 +$55 +121%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $8 +$8 +101%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 +$9 +59%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 06 $30 +$27 +89%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 05 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 04 $25 +$6 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 9¢ $3 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $10 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $10 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 40h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $10 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 7¢ $1 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $13 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $59 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 34¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.90 · official $67.83 (match) · 631 history records