Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3dbe…a158 weather 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-7%) realized −$25 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate14%16W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$54
14 days+$32
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$10
weather 41% −$10
crypto 14% −$35
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-53.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -17.9% -25.7% 10% 10% +8.9%
≤30d 115 -48.5% -53.4% 14% 13% -31.5%
≤90d 115 -48.5% -53.4% 14% 13% -31.5%
all 115 -48.5% -53.4% 14% 13% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.4% 13% -31.5%
10% -57.8% 13% -38.1%
15% -61.9% 10% -44.1%
20% -65.6% 10% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses16 / 99
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)115 / 120
History coverage22d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$3 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$75 +3566%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 28? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 28? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $20 +$19 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $70 +$18 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 14m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 34m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.44 · official $28.44 (match) · 306 history records