Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3dbc…b465 crypto 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$208 (+10%) realized +$208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%129W / 137L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$45
14 days+$1
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$171
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -5.0% -14.0% 54% 50% -1.0%
≤30d 237 -15.2% -23.3% 47% 37% -1.3%
≤90d 266 -12.1% -20.5% 48% 36% -2.0%
all 266 -12.1% -20.5% 48% 36% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 36% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 32% -11.4%
15% -35.0% 30% -19.9%
20% -41.4% 26% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses129 / 137
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage38d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$25 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$24 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$15 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$7 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$9 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$12 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $28 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1306 history records