Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dba…57b9 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1
world 27% −$1
politics 10% +$1
crypto 7% +$1
tech 7% $0
economics 6% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.7%
all 39 -1.8% -11.2% 38% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage470d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 14 $34 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $7 $0 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 28 $4 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 25 $37 +$1 +2%
Will 'DAN DA DAN' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 22 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23? May 20 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $28 $0 -1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? May 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 15 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 13 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 10 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 10 $27 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? May 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $13 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $13 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $34 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $32 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $32 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $3 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $22 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $7 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $18 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $11 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records