Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dba…f5de sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$95 (-34%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$108
other 27% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -22.7% -30.1% 35% 29% -42.5%
≤30d 17 -22.7% -30.1% 35% 29% -42.5%
≤90d 17 -22.7% -30.1% 35% 29% -42.5%
all 17 -22.7% -30.1% 35% 29% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 29% -42.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 29% -48.0%
15% -42.9% 24% -53.0%
20% -48.5% 18% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +29%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$9 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$11 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -56%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$18 +172%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$7 -70%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $39 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 52m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 53m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 56m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $28 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 29¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $4 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 17¢ $3 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $39 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $60 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $60 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.18 · official $27.18 (match) · 35 history records