Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3db0…45e2 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%16W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$2
finance 7% $0
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 16 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses16 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage242d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will a team from CBLOL (Brazil) win MSI 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? May 29 $90 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 10 $5 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 10 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? Jan 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? Jan 30 $10 $0 +0%
BNB all time high by December 31? Jan 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 01 $894 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a team from CBLOL (Brazil) win MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $70 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $65 77d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 77d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $11 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 108d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $79 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $60 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 147d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 183d
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 183d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 183d
BNB all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 183d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $10 183d
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 183d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $10 237d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $894 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.85 · official $95.85 (match) · 35 history records