Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3daf…0dab world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 15% $0
crypto 9% +$1
politics 7% $0
weather 6% −$4
sports 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -4.1% -13.2% 46% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -10.6%
10% -21.5% 0% -19.1%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.0% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage471d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $53 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $72 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will 'My Hero Academia: You’re Next' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Yea May 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 13 $13 $0 -2%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? Apr 22 $10 $0 +4%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Sinners' gross more than $37m on opening weekend? Apr 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 30 $13 $0 +4%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Houston Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 20 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3? Mar 03 $18 −$4 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $22 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $37 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $36 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $36 16d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $1 336d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 97¢ $12 357d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $1 377d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 97¢ $12 391d
Will 'My Hero Academia: You’re Next' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Yea SELL No 98¢ $12 391d
Will 'My Hero Academia: You’re Next' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Yea BUY No 98¢ $12 391d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL No 99¢ $12 391d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi BUY No 98¢ $12 400d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.27 · official $36.27 (match) · 70 history records