Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3daf…3005 crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$26 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$12
weather 10% −$17
other 10% −$5
world 1% −$2
politics 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +3.8% -6.1% 61% 55% -10.6%
≤30d 33 +3.8% -6.1% 61% 55% -10.6%
≤90d 33 +3.8% -6.1% 61% 55% -10.6%
all 33 +3.8% -6.1% 61% 55% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 55% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 45% -19.2%
15% -23.3% 33% -27.0%
20% -30.8% 30% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Open positions43
Markets (closed)33 / 76
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 41¢ 22¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+114%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 25¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Yes 26¢ 42¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+60%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Down 42¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 23? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $108 +$33 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$26 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$9 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$12 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $35 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $79 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $34 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will voter turnout be <52% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian p BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.62 · official $70.71 (match) · 129 history records