Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:15:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3D 0x3daf…19eb sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,521 (+23%) realized +$4,644 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%78W / 80L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day50.4pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days+$3,114
14 days+$4,398
30 days+$4,398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$2,670
other 33% +$1,353
world 4% −$12
crypto 2% +$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 +1.1% -8.6% 48% 46% +8.3%
≤30d 158 +3.9% -6.0% 49% 47% +12.0%
≤90d 158 +3.9% -6.0% 49% 47% +12.0%
all 158 +3.9% -6.0% 49% 47% +12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 47% +12.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 46% +1.3%
15% -23.2% 42% -8.5%
20% -30.7% 37% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$65 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,114
Realized+$4,644
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses78 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions6
Markets (closed)158 / 165
History coverage9d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day50.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $607 $597 −$10 (-2%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 42¢ $256 $302 +$46 (+18%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 56¢ $148 $155 +$7 (+5%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $31 $60 +$29 (+95%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $210 +$90 +43%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $61 +$49 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 20 $54 −$53 -98%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $307 +$203 +66%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $28 −$27 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $300 +$200 +67%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $22 −$21 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$31 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$86 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +33%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $264 +$76 +29%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $9 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $110 +$40 +37%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $206 +$94 +46%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 +$39 +127%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $55 +$45 +82%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $84 −$82 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $113 −$111 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $61 +$59 +96%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $26 +$34 +131%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $39 +$41 +107%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $86 −$85 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $103 +$87 +85%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $69 −$68 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $365 +$256 +70%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $31 +$119 +388%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $294 +$606 +206%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $152 +$182 +119%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $29 31m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $90 31m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $23 31m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 32m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $106 56m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 1h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $92 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $9 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $22 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $47 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $54 3h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $56 3h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $61 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 4h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $210 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $206 7h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 7h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $3 7h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $3 8h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $3 8h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $0 8h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $6 8h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $7 8h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $4 8h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,114.49 · official $1,114.49 (match) · 530 history records