Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3D 0x3dac…ec50 crypto 1757 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$237 (+3%) realized −$1,219 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate87%1676W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,188
7 days−$1,182
14 days−$1,182
30 days−$1,182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$31
other 3% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 574 -29.1% -35.8% 66% 9% -44.0%
≤30d 574 -29.1% -35.8% 66% 9% -44.0%
≤90d 1935 -9.0% -17.6% 87% 5% -21.0%
all 1935 -9.0% -17.6% 87% 5% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 5% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 1% -28.6%
15% -32.7% 1% -35.5%
20% -39.3% 0% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1676 / 259
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1935 / 1757
History coverage81d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1935 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 10AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records