Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3D 0x3dac…35cc crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$19 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%19W / 5L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,494per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$9
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$34
culture 7% −$3
other 4% −$1
world 2% −$2
sports 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 -3.7% -12.9% 82% 0% -9.5%
all 24 -1.7% -11.1% 79% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$2,068) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$3,420
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses19 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage232d
Avg bet$1,494
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,422 $3,420 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $3,419 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 22? Jun 22 $2,068 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,348 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,941 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $371 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,409 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 15 $3,393 +$10 +0%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 31 $47 $0 +0%
NBA: SGA Award Parlay May 19 $33 −$14 -42%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 18 $736 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Mar 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 17? Nov 18 $1,339 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 16? Nov 17 $1,337 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 15? Nov 16 $1,336 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,700 and $3,800 on November 14 Nov 15 $1,335 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 13? Nov 14 $1,333 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 12? Nov 13 $1,332 +$1 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 12 $2,665 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $110 November 3-9? Nov 10 $1,333 +$1 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 09 $1,333 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,800 and $3,900 on November 7? Nov 08 $1,333 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $1,332 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $3,422 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,419 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,348 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,068 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $371 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,941 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $3,409 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $3,404 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $3,393 23d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $47 25d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $47 26d
NBA: SGA Award Parlay SELL Yes 30¢ $19 37d
NBA: SGA Award Parlay BUY Yes 51¢ $33 38d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 92¢ $184 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 93¢ $186 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 92¢ $184 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 92¢ $184 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 92¢ $184 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 92¢ $184 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 91¢ $182 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 91¢ $182 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $37 219d
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,339 221d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,337 222d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,336 223d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,700 and $3,800 on November 14 BUY No 100¢ $1,335 224d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,333 225d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,420.00 · official $3,420.00 (match) · 65 history records