Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:55:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3D 0x3da9…0b1b other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$610 (-48%) realized −$609 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$640
other 40% +$48
sports 6% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.5% -6.3% 50% 50% -56.8%
≤30d 8 +3.5% -6.3% 50% 50% -56.8%
≤90d 8 +3.5% -6.3% 50% 50% -56.8%
all 8 +3.5% -6.3% 50% 50% -56.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 50% -56.8%
10% -15.3% 38% -60.9%
15% -23.5% 25% -64.7%
20% -31.0% 25% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$197 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$609
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage5d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $29 +$9 +31%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $80 −$50 -63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $174 −$95 -54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $78 +$96 +124%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $82 −$4 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $68 +$14 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $39 +$28 +70%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $678 −$640 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $39 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $29 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $30 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $80 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $80 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $174 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $78 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 78¢ $78 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $82 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $68 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $39 45h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $38 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 17¢ $678 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.49 · official $37.49 (match) · 20 history records