Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:47:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3da8…80c3
sports · 466 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$71,527 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$71,760 · open −$233
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$17,647
Realized+$71,760
Unrealized−$233
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses277 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$12,020
Open positions4
Markets (closed)462 / 466
Avg bet$2,672
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 462 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,502
7 days+$37,815
14 days+$46,837
30 days+$83,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 66¢ 66¢ $6,600 $6,550 −$50 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 56¢ 56¢ $6,091 $6,037 −$54 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 54¢ 52¢ $4,860 $4,725 −$135 (-3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 51¢ $328 $335 +$7 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Eternal Fire 26¢ 0¢ $800 $0 −$800 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Playoffs OG 44¢ 0¢ $440 $0 −$440 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 40¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 47¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A MOUZ 72¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 52¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Red Force 43¢ 0¢ $2,500 $0 −$2,500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $700 $0 −$700 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner M80 43¢ 0¢ $900 $0 −$900 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Anyones Legend 72¢ 0¢ $3,700 $0 −$3,700 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner THUNDER dOWNUNDER 34¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B FURIA 73¢ 0¢ $826 $0 −$826 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Astralis 46¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner JiJieHao 24¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 53¢ 0¢ $1,600 $0 −$1,600 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group B THUNDER dOWNUNDER 14¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5,054 +$2,758 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5,496 +$8,343 +152%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $5,054 +$2,758 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5,040 +$1,809 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $16,106 +$4,402 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5,072 −$5,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5,788 +$6,013 +104%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5,070 −$5,000 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10,116 −$10,000 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $5,067 −$5,000 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $4,630 −$4,586 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $11,502 +$552 +5%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5,066 +$3,863 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5,048 +$2,305 +46%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10,081 +$3,618 +36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $4,336 +$1,637 +38%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5,067 +$4,023 +79%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $4,005 +$164 +4%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $8,002 +$78 +1%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5,036 +$1,556 +31%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $10,100 +$5,006 +50%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5,066 +$3,863 +76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5,084 +$6,303 +124%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $5,049 +$2,413 +48%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5,060 −$5,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,031 +$2,135 +105%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $5,040 +$1,820 +36%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,029 +$1,827 +90%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,036 +$3,048 +150%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $5,071 −$5,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,020 +$965 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5,413 +$5,705 +105%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,036 −$2,000 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 07 $4,062 −$4,000 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,011 +$540 +53%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $1,007 +$309 +31%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $10,042 +$1,586 +16%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,030 −$2,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,022 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,022 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $2,025 +$1,365 +67%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2,825 +$1,175 +42%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $3,037 +$2,048 +67%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5,034 +$1,807 +36%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,336 +$2,479 +106%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $9,057 +$2,385 +26%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $3,547 +$2,798 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $3,529 +$1,332 +38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,664 +$795 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$76,895
crypto 2% −$5,368
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $280 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $841 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $841 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $841 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $841 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $309 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $2,117 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $6,667 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $4,927 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $5,496 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $5,123 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 73¢ $5,040 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $5,054 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $5,054 15h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $5,072 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 78¢ $16,106 17h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 54¢ $5,070 20h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 48¢ $5,788 20h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 61¢ $10,116 29h
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 55¢ $5,067 39h
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 68¢ $4,630 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 95¢ $1 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 95¢ $124 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 95¢ $19 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 95¢ $26 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 95¢ $332 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 95¢ $836 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 95¢ $28 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +7.9% -2.4% 68% 63% +1.0%
≤30d 367 +2.1% -7.6% 63% 57% -3.0%
≤90d 462 -3.1% -12.4% 60% 55% -4.1%
all 462 -3.1% -12.4% 60% 55% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 55% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 49% -13.3%
15% -28.4% 40% -21.7%
20% -35.4% 29% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,646.60 · official $17,646.60 (match) · 1003 history records